Please forgive me for the poor quality of this post. I wouldn’t take much out of this list. I’ll refer you to Preston’s “Farm to Fountains” ranking whenever it comes out for a more detailed, better thought-out list. However, I did say I’d have a preseason list out and it’s still fun for me to assemble, so here you go:
#1: Cayden Wallace, 3B
I ended the season with Wallace as my top prospect and I don’t think I’m ready to back off of that assertion just yet. I’ve gotta admit, the ceiling on Wallace may be even lower than I thought in July, but I think the floor might somehow be even higher too. I’ll address this in more detail a bit later, but the Royals farm system is not in great shape at the moment. Not with the way Asa Lacy hasn’t pitched and Gavin Cross hasn’t hit. The Royals need their first round picks to be much better than they’ve been.
In any case, Wallace presents perhaps the most likely bet for a Royals prospect to be a valuable big league asset. Over his last 100 PA at AA last season, Wallace walked 10% of the time and struck out just 13% of the time. The raw power has never really been a question, Wallace is plenty strong to hit 25 home runs in the big leagues, but he doesn’t get to that raw power in games as often as you’d like, but perhaps that was an adjustment to his approach last year.
I made a comparison for Wallace on Twitter to former Royals third baseman Joe Randa. For reference, here is a look at Joe Randa’s median MLB season (2002):
- 0.67 BB/K
- .144 ISO
- 97 wRC+
- 2.1 fWAR
Randa was a pretty consistent 2-win player and popped a couple of 3.5 win seasons during his big league career. He played solid defense at third base, put together a good at bat, didn’t strike out much, and provided just enough power to be valuable in an everyday lineup. Now…times were different back then, and I’m not saying Wallace’s absolute ceiling is Joe Randa, but I do think there’s a better than 50/50 shot that you’ll get Randa-ish production out of Wallace in Kansas City, which is pretty valuable on a rookie deal.
#2: Gavin Cross, OF
I wrote last summer that I still believed in Cross’ ultimate ceiling, and that’s still true. The best, realistic outcome for Cross is still a borderline All-Star and the top prospect in the organization. I am, unfortunately, perplexed by how awful he looked at times last summer. It seems like the Royals have had several top prospects do this lately. Asa Lacy, Ashe Russell, Brady McConnell, Frank Mozzicato, Gavin Cross…the talent is absurd. There’s clearly ability, but for some reason they get to pro ball and then completely come unglued to a point where you have to legitimately question the entire scouting process.
The good news for Cross is that I think most of his problems are actually fixable. He’s a legitimately impressive athlete with tremendous raw power. He has a really good approach and is plenty good at drawing walks and showing on-base ability. Most of Cross’ problems originated with offspeed pitches in the zone, something that I think is workable once he learns how to deal with right-handed changeups. Not that his only issue is one pitch, but I do think it’s the genesis of many of the problems Cross had last season and something he was overexposed to in the lower levels of the minors. It may take Cross a couple of months to get right in 2024, but I’d take a good bet that by August he looks more like the guy the Royals thought they were getting when they took him with the 9th overall pick in 2022.
#3: Tyler Gentry, OF
When I dropped Gentry down to #10 on my midseason list he hadn’t quite finished doing that, so forgive me. Gentry reminds me a lot of Cayden Wallace as a prospect. Tremendous raw power that he doesn’t access as efficiently as you’d like. Great approach. Good-not-great defense at a non-premium position. Good enough runner. Very high floor but I question the ultimate ceiling on the player. For a Royals team that desperately needs to start producing impactful big leaguers, Gentry is a great place to start. If they can get him to produce 2-3 wins per season for the next 6-7 seasons while he’s on his rookie deal, he’d present some fantastic value for a team that is trying to get back to respectable.
#4: David Sandlin, RHP
I had David Sandlin at #12 on my list a couple of hours ago. Then I saw him dotting a 100-mph fastball on the outside corner to a right-handed hitter with 20 inches of induced vertical break and I had to make a quick adjustment.
To be clear, the adjustment was NOT about me finding out he was good all of a sudden. After sitting on my midseason ranking all winter, where I had Sandlin ranked 12th, I realized that there was a chance he was the best pitching prospect in the system already. Then he injured his oblique after two starts at High-A and the ole ‘TINSTAAPP’ creeped into my head and I had to stop myself from reaching on him.
Then, yesterday, Sandlin posted a video on Instagram of himself throwing 100 off the mound already and I am ready to get hurt again. Back on the bandwagon. Ready to fall of the wagon. Whatever the term you want to use, use it. Sandlin has the best combination of stuff, experience, and command in the system, giving him the slight edge here over Mozzicato and Kudrna. I expect he may have to prove himself in High-A again before getting another promotion, but I wouldn’t waste that time. I’d start him in AA, maybe even AAA if he’s lights out this spring.
#5: Frank Mozzicato, LHP
Between 2016 and 2019, there was not a single 20-year old in Low-A with at least 50 IP that recorded a K% over 35%. Frank Mozzicato’s K% at Low-A last season was an absurd 36.2%, which was tied for the highest mark of any 20-year old at any one level all of last season. Put simply, Frank Mozzicato knows how to strike a…dude… out.
The question will obviously be whether or not Mozzicato can figure out how to stop walking people. His BB/9 were bad while he was in Low-A last season and somehow got significantly worse upon arrival to High-A. Mozzicato has been pretty consistently hard to hit but he allows more free bases than just about any starter in the organization. He’s not Asa Lacy bad, but it sure is bad. The good news is that if you had to pick a starter with his stuff and command, versus the inverse, you’d take Mozzicato’s profile most days of the week. You can teach command, you can’t really teach the natural stuff that comes out of his hand. For now, I’ll lean toward Mozzicato’s natural ability, but the Royals need to show me that they can help him tap into his potential if he’s going to be in my top-10 at midseason.
#6: Ben Kudrna, RHP
I love Ben Kudrna so much. I have an extremely biased scout’s opinion of Kudrna that the numbers don’t really back up. Kudrna reminds me so much of James Shields that I just can’t help but to expect he’s going to be a really good big league arm. It’s some of the best composure I’ve every seen on a 20-year old pitcher to go with a big fastball, great changeup, and serviceable breaking ball. None of his stuff is outright unhittable like Mozzicato, but he commands the ball in and out of the strike zone with authority and I really think he’s just going to fly through the minor leagues over the next couple of seasons. There’s some pedigree backing me up here more so than the numbers to this point in his career, but this might be one of my “told you so” picks for the 2024 season.
#7: Nick Loftin, UTIL
Nick Loftin is going to be a big leaguer for a long time because he is just so stinking versatile. He rarely strikes out, he walks enough, he has *just* enough juice to matter, and he can play four positions at a legitimately above average clip at any point in time. The ultimate ceiling on him is fairly limited, but he’s got some Nicky Lopez in him with legitimate big league utility pop, unlike Nicky.
#8: Spencer Nivens, OF
Hit tool. Raw power. Approach. ++ Athlete. We’ll revisit in July. One of us will be laughing.
#9: Carson Roccaforte, CF
Theme coming up here is athletic outfielders with hitterish ability and a superb chance to provide positive defense at multiple positions across the outfield. I like Nivens bat the best, and Diego Hernandez’ glove the best, but Roccaforte is perhaps the best combination of the two.
#10: Javier Vaz, 2B/LF
There’s a better shot that Vaz winds up a regular at second base long-term than a true utility man, but the bat seems to be legit and I think he has some Steven Kwan in him if everything plays out right.
#11: Diego Hernandez, CF
Hernandez has had his struggles at the plate but there’s some 60+ speed and defense here so he’s got as good a shot as anyone to spend significant time on a big league roster. Having Hernandez this high is much more an indictment on the Royals farm system than it is a praise of Hernandez, as I don’t think there’s any hitters left with a “good” shot to be a big league contributor. From here on out its “maybes” and TINSTAAPP.
#12: Blake Mitchell, C
Having Mitchell this low is probably dumb, but I think it emphasizes how much I hate the pick by KC and how worried I am about what Mitchell’s future in KC is. There’s a very good chance this is going to age terribly. Mitchell’s upside is legitimately very high. I’m just not buying the likelihood that he catches all the way through the minors AND hits at the clip you’d expect from a first round pick. Here’s what I wrote last summer:
“2.7% of the time the roulette wheel lands on number zero. When that happens, you don’t want to be the guy that bet his life savings on red or black. However, if any random person were to walk up to any average roulette wheel and bet their life savings on zero, you’d have to assume that person was mentally unstable.”
#13: Mason Barnett, RHP
I did not quite realize how good Barnett was last year. The stuff was always going to play in some capacity, and I do still question whether or not the command will play at a clip acceptable for a starting pitcher, but he pretty well dominated AA last year and has a decent shot at cracking the big leagues this season if he keeps pitching well. The profile isn’t exactly what you’d build a model around, but he sure is an intriguing arm in a system that needs intriguing arms.
#14: Chandler Champlain, RHP
Champlain is somewhere between “model darling” and “scout’s nightmare” when he’s on the mound. Nothing he does is exactly traditional, but the fastball/breaking ball duo is legit and he throws enough strikes to give himself a chance to start long-term. His in-zone command is not great, but he keeps his walks down and he should be able to mix his pitches enough to keep the extra-base hits at a minimum.
#15: Blake Wolters, RHP
If you asked me who the most volatile prospect in the system is, it might be Wolters. I would bet you real money he won’t be #15 on our preseason list in 2025. He’ll either be top-5 or borderline not even top-30. I’d bet on the former, but this is gonna be a, “Wow he’s good,” or, “Classic Royals messing up their prep pitchers,” kind of pick.
#16: Peyton Wilson, 2B
#17: Luca Tresh, C
I did not realize how productive he actually was last year.
#18: Erick Torres, CF
Darkhorse candidate to jump into the top-10 by midseason. Really really like this kid.
#19: Ramon Ramirez, C
I don’t normally jump this far with prospects before they hit stateside, but the film looks really good and the numbers might be better.
#20: Carter Jensen,C
#21: Andrew Hoffmann, RHP
#22: Will Klein, RHP
#23: Trevor Werner, 3B
Somehow I didn’t realize that his SwStr% at Low-A last year was below 9%…I’m really intrigued.
#24: Austin Charles, SS
#25: Noah Cameron, LHP
I go back and forth between 15-18 range and not a top-30 prospect here.
#26: Hunter Owen, LHP
Big time upside. Injury history.
#27: Jared Dickey, OF
Dickey can flat hit. I just…I’m super flustered by his upside. He appears to have some pop but we didn’t really see it at all in pro ball. He’s definitely not a center fielder and I go back and forth on his defensive evals. He should probably be higher than this but I get some Tucker Bradley vibes and, not that that’s bad, it’s just not a big league regular.
#28: Daniel Vazquez, SS
Not giving up on the athlete, or the defender. Has some Alcides Escobar in him.
#29: Emmanuel Reyes, RHP
A really athletic righty with good offspeed at a young age.
#30: Asa Lacy, LHP
… 🙂
Just Missed:
- Steven Zobac, RHP
- Luinder Avila, RHP
- Hunter Patteson, LHP
- Christian Chamberlain, LHP
- Lizandro Rodriguez, 2B
- Milo Rushford, OF
- River Town, OF
- Tucker Bradley, OF
Royals Farm Report 
Is Jimmy Govern still in the Royals system?
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