The Royals current 40-man roster situation is perhaps the most unclear it’s been in years in terms of who will be on the 26-man big league roster on Opening Day. There are 37 players on the roster who, in my opinion, have a legitimate shot to break camp with the big league team. The only three players currently on the roster that I don’t think have a legitimate shot to make the Opening Day roster are Diego Hernandez, Alec Marsh, and Jonathan Bowlan. Hernandez is just not ready and Bowlan is still working back from Tommy John Surgery. Alec Marsh could theoretically compete for a bullpen spot, but they’re going to keep developing him as a starter in the minor leagues for now.

That leaves us with 37 players on the 40-man roster plus a handful of non-roster invitees (Camargo/Duffy/etc.) in legitimate competition for 26 spots on the Opening Day roster. I really don’t think the bottom 9 or 10 spots on the roster have been this up in the air in a long time. Let’s split this into categories:

Opening Day Locks (17)

• Scott Barlow
• Aroldis Chapman
• Taylor Clarke
• Dylan Coleman
• Amir Garrett
• Zack Greinke* (SP1)
• Brad Keller
• Jordan Lyles (SP2)
• Daniel Lynch (SP3)
• Brady Singer (SP4)
• Josh Staumont
• Ryan Yarbrough
• MJ Melendez
• Salvador Perez
• Hunter Dozier
• Bobby Witt Jr.
• Vinnie Pasquantino

That is 17 locks for the Opening Day roster by my count, including Zack Greinke who has not officially signed at the time of writing this. Obviously things can change with trades/DFA’s/injuries, but assuming all of these guys are healthy and still with the team at the end of Spring Training, I would just assume that they will be on the roster on Opening Day.

With all the competition that we ought to see for the offense, the pitching staff is…pretty set? This is also where injuries are most likely to occur so, take that with a grain of salt. Let’s take a look at the pitchers left with an inside track for the big league staff based on prior experiece:

Pitchers With the Inside Track (7)

• Kris Bubic
• Jose Cuas
• Jonathan Heasley
• Carlos Hernandez
• Jackson Kowar
• Anthony Misiewicz
• Collin Snider

All seven of those guys spent a semi-considerable amount of time on the big league staff last season. There are two or three of these guys that I really thought would kind of be locked in, but I don’t really know who they would replace on the “locks” list either? Based on my projected rotation, I’d expect some combination of Keller/Yarbrough/Bubic/Heasley/Hernandez/Kowar to compete for the final rotation spot. If one of Keller/Yarbrough wins that spot, that means that a bullpen spot would be open instead. So…I don’t know. I honestly think it would be a good thing if some of these guys got to go back to Omaha for a bit and regroup. They clearly were not all ready for big league action last year.

An Outside Shot (4)

• Max Castillo
• Richard Lovelady
• Josh Taylor
• Angel Zerpa

Castillo spent some time with the big league club last year, but he feels like a prime candidate to open the season making 10-12 starts in Omaha. Lovelady, Taylor, and Zerpa all missed time due to injury last year and probably ought to start the year in Omaha. I am probably Zerpa’s biggest fan, but even I don’t see a realistic way for him to crack the Opening Day rotation unless he just comes out and dominates during Spring Training.

Hitters That I THINK Make It…(6)

• Nicky Lopez
• Michael Massey
• Kyle Isbel
• Edward Olivares
• Drew Waters
• One of Johan Camargo/Matt Duffy

I’ve only got five locks for the offense, but I’m pretty confident in these six as well. Nicky Lopez was almost a lock for me but he does have three options and was pretty pathetic at the plate last year. I think Michael Massey is the second baseman. I think Isbel, Olivares, and Waters split time between CF and RF with Melendez in LF. Then, I think either Camargo or Duffy makes it as a utility infielder and rotational option at third base with Hunter Dozier. That brings our locks/likely total to 24.

Fighting for the Last Two Spots (6)

• One of Johan Camargo/Matt Duffy
• Freddy Fermin
• Nate Eaton
• Maikel Garcia
• Nick Pratto
• Samad Taylor

If you made me guess the actual offensive roster for Opening Day, here’s how it would look:

• Melendez LF
• Isbel CF
• Waters RF
• Eaton 3B
• Witt Jr. SS
• Massey 2B
• Pratto 1B
• Salvy C
• Vinnie DH
• Lopez UTIL
• Camargo UTIL
• Olivares UTIL
• Dozier UTIL

That leaves Fermin, Garcia, Duffy, and Taylor in the minor leagues to start the season. However…as likely as that may be, I don’t think there’s any good guarantees for any of the non-MJ/BWJ/Vinnie/Salvy/Dozier crowd. Hence not being under the “locks” category.

Really quick, here’s my guess at what the Opening Day pitching staff looks like:

• SP1: Singer
• SP2: Greinke
• SP3: Lynch
• SP4: Lyles
• SP5: Bubic
• RP1: Barlow
• RP2: Chapman
• RP3: Coleman
• RP4: Staumont
• RP5: Clarke
• RP6: Yarbrough
• RP7: Keller
• RP8: Garrett

That’s 13 pitchers and 13 hitters to break camp. I think Freddy Fermin winds up on the roster periodically because I really think MJ is about to transition to the outfield for the most part. The nice thing is that, especially early on in the season, they should be able to rock with Salvy back there most days and have MJ for emergencies. By June I’d expect Fermin to be with the big league team most of the time.

This will all surely change. Injuries are bound to happen. I feel strangely good about this, however, despite all the uncertainty I think exists heading into camp.