2019 Shadow Draft: Part Two

So back when the draft happened, I did a shadow draft.  Look at my reasoning here.  I encourage you all to try it for the 2020 MLB Draft. It changes how you look at a draft.  I explained my reasoning and why I took some of the players I chose after the draft in my Shadow Draft article.  Now that the signing deadline has happened, and players are in the minors, let’s take a look back at the signing deadline.

First of all, let’s take a look at my signings.  In real life, 4 of the 16 guys I drafted did not sign.  Bryce Osmond, Jake Rice, Ross Carver, and Spencer Jones did not sign.  Rice was dealing with an injury and didn’t even get drafted.  I drafted Jones in the 15th because I wanted the chance to sign him if I couldn’t get Osmond or Contreras signed.  Contreras ended up signing for $249,000 so I really was off on what it would take to sign him.  Clarke and Edouard signed for almost $500,000 each. I was budgeting about $600,000 for both and ended up at almost $1M.  

Pick Number Name Position Slot Value Signing Bonus
1.2 Bobby Witt, Jr. SS $7,790,000 $7,790,000
2.44 Noah Song RHP $1,690,000 $100,000
CBB.70 Isaiah Campbell RHP $906,800 $850,000
3.80 Bryce Osmond – DNS RHP $767,800 Oklahoma State
4.109 Erik Miller LHP $533,000 $428,300
5.139 Bryant Packard LF $398,000 $386,600
6.169 Johnny Rizer RF $299,000 $15,000
7.199 Brad Deppermann RHP $233,000 $50,000
8.229 Jake Rice – ND LHP $184,700 Presbyterian
9.259 Phillip Clarke C $158,600 $497,500
10.289 Julian Edouard 2B $147,700 $493,000
11.309 Antoine Duplantis CF $85,000
12.349 Yan Contreras SS $249,000
13.379 Nick Morreale RHP $125,000
14.409 Ross Carver – DNS RHP Dallas Baptist
15.439 Spencer Jones – DNS LHP Vanderbilt
$13,108,600 $10,944,400 83.49%


Let’s examine some of those guys who didn’t sign and see if I could have possibly signed them.  This is inexact because I don’t know the demands of players and agents or any negotiating tactics unless I’ve seen them reported somewhere.  I thought I’d be able to save some money on Witt but the Royals gave him full slot value. Again, I don’t know the answer here, but I would have offered less because a $7M bonus is saving me almost $1M and is still a LOT of money to turn down.  

I thought it would take $1M to sign Song, but he signed for $100,000.  So, I did save almost $1.6M which was more than I thought I’d save with Witt so it worked out.  My goal was to sign Osmund which I thought would take about $1.5M. I’ve heard the number may have actually been closer to $2M or more.  Again, I’m not part of that process so I go on rumors and things that have been reported. I will go with that same number for Jones.

Option A – Sign Osmund.  

If I signed Osmund for $2M, and I signed Rice who wasn’t drafted for $100,000, that would give me about $600,000 to spend.  That includes the 5 percent you are allowed to go over on slot values.  That would not allow me to sign Jones. However, I would be able to sign Carver.

Option B – Sign Jones.  

If I don’t sign Osmund I lose $767,800 of slot money.  That would give me about $1.75M to sign Jones. I hope that gets it done, but I don’t know.  I would not have the chance to sign Carver because I would hit the more than 5 percent overage penalties eliminating my 2020 1st round pick.  I could justify this because the Royals will have a CBA pick in 2020.  

Option C – Sign both Osmund and Jones.  

I give Osmund his $2M and Jones $2M.  I can’t sign Carver. That puts me at 14.77 percent over my allotment meaning I lose my 1st and 2nd round pick in 2020.  I could justify this because I’ll be keeping the 2020 CBA pick which will be between the first and second rounds and I’ll have signed a second potential first round talent in 2019 which could substitute for the lost 2020 first round pick.  However, Jones ability doesn’t match number three overall ability.

Which option would you pick?  I picked Option A.  I want the first round (probably number three overall), CBA, and second round pick in 2020.  

Something else to consider.  I am unsure of what picks are protected if a team goes over their allotment.  What I mean is, if I go over my allotment with Option C, is my 2020 first round pick protected because it is a top 10 pick?  If it is protected, do I lose my CBA and second round pick in 2020 or my second and third round pick in 2020? All the sudden I might be able to game the system earning an extra first round talent.  If this is possibly, I’m taking Option C and my third overall pick (and maybe the CBA pick?) in 2020.  

Photo by Bill Mitchell.

2 thoughts on “2019 Shadow Draft: Part Two

  1. Pingback: Minor League Minutes for 8/23/19: Brewer Hicklen can’t stop hitting home runs | Royals Farm Report

  2. Pingback: Minor League Minutes: 8/24/19 | Royals Farm Report

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