Alrighty. As I have mentioned several times before, I just don’t have time for the usual draft coverage you may be used to. I apologize in advance for that. Hopefully next summer I’ll have a little bit more time to dive into it. With that being said, I am usually pretty willing to let y’all hold my feet to the fire with my takes and predictions. I’m going to ask for a little grace this year. I feel like I have been pretty transparent through the years when new information is presented to me and I change an opinion. That may happen a lot between now and the draft. I have been gung ho about Matt Shaw on Twitter, but recent insight into Tommy Troy has me reconsidering which college bat I like the best at the top of this draft for KC. Speaking of which…
If you’re talking about the smartest angle for Kansas City in this draft cycle, it’s 100% bat and 75% college bat. The Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds are recent examples of using the draft to take hitters to climb out of the 100-loss holes they dug themselves for years. The Royals lineup has more long-term fixtures in it than the pitching staff does, but there is no such thing as a pitching prospect and the 2018 draft class is proof enough that taking pitchers early in the draft is a great way to set your rebuild back half a decade.
There are obviously exceptions. The Rays took Shane McClanahan at the very end of the first round in 2018 and he is the best pitcher in the American League right now. Sometimes a guy falls inexplicably and you have to be able to capitalize on it. Then again…Brady Singer and Asa Lacy are great examples of that happening to Kansas City recently and that’s been an abysmal experience so far.
So all I’m saying is that yes, the Royals pitching development staff is better now than it has been. Yes, it is possible that Noble Meyer turns into Spencer Strider. It is possible that Rhett Lowder could be the next coming of Aaron Nola. It’s just incredibly unlikely and it’s far more likely that you could find 90% of that value much cheaper much later in the draft without losing anything in terms of the overall risk.
It is far less likely that you draft a Vinnie Pasquantino in the 11th round than it is a David Sandlin. It is far less likely that you draft a Michael Massey in the 4th round than it is that you draft a Jakob Junis. Most of your best hitters in 2023 are going to come from the first couple of rounds in the draft or international free agency. So when you see my draft rankings and wonder why I don’t want the Royals to draft a pitcher in the first round, that’s why. It’s too risky. Your best chance of being competitive again at the big league level is to nail your early draft picks on hitters and then find some arms you like later and develop them into useful big league assets. The Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, and Cincinnati Reds are just a few recent examples of this. Don’t try to reinvent the wheel. Play the odds and restock the farm system.
Alright. With that being said, and another brief reminder that I am not nearly as well-versed in the draft process this season as I have been in the past, here is my official 2023 MLB Draft prospect rankings:
- Dylan Crews, CF
- Generational talent. Obvious choice for the first overall pick. Closest thing I’ve seen to Mike Trout. He obviously will not be the best player ever, but even if he’s just 60% as good, he’s a perennial All-Star (yeah, Trout is that good).
- Wyatt Langford, OF
- The second best hitter in this draft class and the number one prospect in probably 70% of drafts in the last 10 years. He’s really good. May even be a tick better offensively than Crews. But he is not Dylan Crews and Dylan Crews is in this draft class.
- Paul Skenes, RHP
- TINSTAAPP and all but Skenes could probably be a starter in the Royals rotation right now. There’s not been a pitching prospect like his for my money since Strasburg. No-brainer here.
- Max Clark, CF
- The best prep player in the draft and maybe my favorite prep bat since Bobby Witt Jr. in 2019 (though I was way off on how good Jackson Holliday would wind up being). I’d have Clark over Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green, Marcelo Mayer, and Jordan Lawlar, and Walker Jenkins in the next tier below him. Clark is a freak athlete with a swing that has and insidious agenda at the plate. Good year to have a top-five pick (massive eye roll).
- Kyle Teel, C
- This may seem high, but you know how I feel about college bats and Teel is a double-plus defender at the most important position on the field. Teel’s biggest knock is his receiving but with ABS coming to Major League Baseball it’s a non-issue. He does everything else really well and he may be the safest non-Crews pick in the entire draft class. Big fan. Praying he falls to KC and they take him.
CHANGE #1: I am putting Shaw back over Troy, which was my original stance, then flipped, but I’m going back. I’m not going to edit the write ups because I don’t have time for all that, but I will adjust the ranking. Shaw might be the second safest pick in this draft. If I had the second overall pick, and Shaw was willing to save me a million dollars or so, I’d strongly consider him at 1.2. As it is, it’s very likely that he’s available at #8 and very likely the Royals won’t take him for some reason. I have rarely put my eggs into one basket like this in a draft. I was all in on Jung last year but was willing to say, “Hey, Cam Collier is available!” I don’t know in what situation this year would Matt Shaw be available and I’m ready to pass on him. It’s almost too good of a fit for what this Royals system needs right now.
- This may seem high, but you know how I feel about college bats and Teel is a double-plus defender at the most important position on the field. Teel’s biggest knock is his receiving but with ABS coming to Major League Baseball it’s a non-issue. He does everything else really well and he may be the safest non-Crews pick in the entire draft class. Big fan. Praying he falls to KC and they take him.
- Matt Shaw, 2B
- Shaw posted an OPS of 1.142 at Maryland this spring 24 home runs, 45 total XBH, 18 SB, and 43 BB to just 42 K. He’s a plenty fine athlete to be an above-average defender at second base long-term and the bat should fly through the minor leagues. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if you’re talking about an Ian Kinsler type of bat in the big leagues. I’m following my brain with the Troy pick, but my heart is all in on Matt Shaw at #8 (assuming Teel is gone).
CHANGE #2: I am jumping Walker Jenkins over Tommy Troy. Just think the upside with Jenkins is incredibly high and while Troy theoretically has the safer profile, I still think that he has some inherent swing and miss risk so I’ll take the extra upside in Jenkins.
- Shaw posted an OPS of 1.142 at Maryland this spring 24 home runs, 45 total XBH, 18 SB, and 43 BB to just 42 K. He’s a plenty fine athlete to be an above-average defender at second base long-term and the bat should fly through the minor leagues. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if you’re talking about an Ian Kinsler type of bat in the big leagues. I’m following my brain with the Troy pick, but my heart is all in on Matt Shaw at #8 (assuming Teel is gone).
- Walker Jenkins, OF
- Not gonna spend as much time here. Don’t expect him to be available at #8. Would be thrilled if he is. Second best prep bat in the draft. Big left-handed hitter. Reminds me some of both Marcelo Mayer and JJ Bleday.
CHANGE #3: I am jumping Arjun Nimmala to #8. Nimmala’s upside is just too much for me to keep at #10. I do think his upside rivals that of even Jenkins, but I think Jenkins’ swing is more suited for long-term power so he’s got the edge for now, but Nimmala being a potentially plus-defender at SS could be the difference if the bats wind up being equal.
- Not gonna spend as much time here. Don’t expect him to be available at #8. Would be thrilled if he is. Second best prep bat in the draft. Big left-handed hitter. Reminds me some of both Marcelo Mayer and JJ Bleday.
- Arjun Nimmala, SS
- I think Nimmala has a chance to be the steal of this draft class, but I also think the concerns about his pitch ID and hit tool are legitimate. It’s interesting when your eye matches up with someone else’s, and Eric Longehagen of FanGraphs noticed the same thing that I did about Nimmala: he kind of struggles with breaking balls away from him. Now, with that being said, he’s one fix away from the steal of the draft. Athletes like this don’t slide down draft boards for nothing. He’s got crazy tools, tools worthy of a top-five pick, but there’s also a couple of legitimate holes in his swing that worry me a tad in the long run.
CHANGE #8: I’m in on Enrique Bradfield at #8 if it’s under slot value ($5.89M).
- I think Nimmala has a chance to be the steal of this draft class, but I also think the concerns about his pitch ID and hit tool are legitimate. It’s interesting when your eye matches up with someone else’s, and Eric Longehagen of FanGraphs noticed the same thing that I did about Nimmala: he kind of struggles with breaking balls away from him. Now, with that being said, he’s one fix away from the steal of the draft. Athletes like this don’t slide down draft boards for nothing. He’s got crazy tools, tools worthy of a top-five pick, but there’s also a couple of legitimate holes in his swing that worry me a tad in the long run.
- Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF
- The Gold Glove Award winner in CF at the collegiate level this spring, Bradfield won’t need to hit much to be a valuable big leaguer. He’d be a Gold Glove candidate in the big leagues right now and he’s a legitimate 80-grade runner. His bat-t0-ball skills are as good as it gets and his approach is fantastic as well. The only concern with EBJ, and it’s a big one, is his ability to impact the baseball at a meaningful level against upper-level pitching. Is he more Nick Madrigal or Maikel Garcia? If he’s Madrigal, you have a useful big leaguer a step above Kyle Isbel. If he’s Maikel Garcia, well you may have the next Brett Gardner on your hands.
- Tommy Troy, 2B/3B
- I did not realize what kind of athlete Troy is until FanGraphs pointed it out recently. Actually, before that even, an old friend reached out during my “Matt Shaw no matter what” campaign and gently nudged me toward Troy’s bat speed and batted ball profile as a suggestion that maybe Troy was the better college bat to choose from long-term. I still think I like Shaw’s approach more than Troy’s, but it’s hard to argue with the tools that Troy possesses, and they are LOUD. They’re going to be ranked back-to-back here, so it’s not that big of a gap for me, but my official stance as of now is Troy > Shaw.
CHANGE #4: Brayden Taylor jumps into the top-10. I did not know just how ridiculous this dude’s raw power is. The strikeouts are still a *little* concerning, but I originally did not think he had the raw power to compensate. He absolutely does.
- I did not realize what kind of athlete Troy is until FanGraphs pointed it out recently. Actually, before that even, an old friend reached out during my “Matt Shaw no matter what” campaign and gently nudged me toward Troy’s bat speed and batted ball profile as a suggestion that maybe Troy was the better college bat to choose from long-term. I still think I like Shaw’s approach more than Troy’s, but it’s hard to argue with the tools that Troy possesses, and they are LOUD. They’re going to be ranked back-to-back here, so it’s not that big of a gap for me, but my official stance as of now is Troy > Shaw.
- Brayden Taylor, 3B
- I was all aboard the Brayden Taylor at #8 train earlier this spring, and while I’d still be okay with the pick, I think it has to be under slot at this point. He struck out around 18.7% of the time at TCU this spring but he bopped 23 HR and has arguably the second best power bat in the draft. College performers with his ability to impact the baseball usually work out well in the long run, and Taylor absolutely has the defensive ability to stick at third base long term, so he’s probably worthy of jumping borderline top-10 pitchers in this specific class.
CHANGE #9: I whiffed on Colin Houck.
- I was all aboard the Brayden Taylor at #8 train earlier this spring, and while I’d still be okay with the pick, I think it has to be under slot at this point. He struck out around 18.7% of the time at TCU this spring but he bopped 23 HR and has arguably the second best power bat in the draft. College performers with his ability to impact the baseball usually work out well in the long run, and Taylor absolutely has the defensive ability to stick at third base long term, so he’s probably worthy of jumping borderline top-10 pitchers in this specific class.
- Colin Houck, SS
- Perhaps the third or fourth best prep bat in the class, I think Nimmala has more upside than Houck does, but Houck’s swing is shorter, simpler, and though he’s a full year older than Nimmala, he *feels* a bit safer than Nimmala. I really think the Royals will strongly consider Houck at #8 if Teel is not available, and I would not be surprised at all if he’s the first big “surprise” on draft night.
CHANGE #5: Brock Wilken enters the fold.
- Perhaps the third or fourth best prep bat in the class, I think Nimmala has more upside than Houck does, but Houck’s swing is shorter, simpler, and though he’s a full year older than Nimmala, he *feels* a bit safer than Nimmala. I really think the Royals will strongly consider Houck at #8 if Teel is not available, and I would not be surprised at all if he’s the first big “surprise” on draft night.
- Brock Wilken, 3B
- Right-handed Brayden Taylor. Maybe a little more swing-and-miss in the zone, but a better defender at the hot corner and just as much pop from the right side as Taylor has from the left side. Favoring the lefty with a bit better in-zone contact ability, in my opinion.
- Hurston Waldrep, RHP
- Outside of Skenes, I think Waldrep has the best chance to be an impact starter of any arm in this draft class. He throws three outstanding offspeed pitches in the strike one with excellent command and can run his fastball into the upper-90’s with regularity. I don’t love the fastball shape, but the rest of his arsenal is good enough to offset the pitch given he has good velocity. I think there’s a significant drop off between Waldrep and the next best pitching prospect in this draft, so you won’t see me advocating for anyone else.
- Noble Meyer, RHP
- Oh boy. Here we go. Look…Meyer might have the second best stuff of any pitcher in the draft. He’s a legitimately elite talent and an absolutely electric pitching prospect. I just cannot get over the absolutely horrendous track record of prep RHP being taken this early in the draft. It’s horrific. You generally do not want anything to do with being the first team to draft a prep righty inside the top 10. With that being said…he’s really good. Like…really, really, REALLY good. We’ll see. The Royals love him apparently. I’d probably rank him as KC’s top prospect. I just don’t think the Royals farm system is even close to being able to absorb the damage this pick would do if Meyer doesn’t work out in the long run. He would have to be a big league starter by 2027 and that’s not fair to the kid nor the organization. The Royals absolutely must hit on this pick and drafting a prep RHP ain’t a good way to make a living long-term.
- Blake Mitchell, C/OF
- I’m listing Mitchell as a C/OF because I think if you draft him at #8 the move is to just immediately transition him to the outfield and let him rake. Offensively, he reminds me of a smoother Carter Jensen. Where Jensen was a third round pick and really has to sell out for power, Mitchell is a top-20 talent in this draft and has some of the easiest power in the draft class. I really think there’s a chance we look back in a couple years and realize Mitchell was the Nolan Gorman of this draft class.
- Aidan Miller, 3B
- I haven’t heard Miller connected to KC even once this spring so I’ll save some words here. Huge power and a great chance to stick at third base. One of my favorite “under-the-radar” kids in this draft.
- Jacob Gonzalez, SS
- I’m not sold on Gonzalez at SS, but it seems like the industry is completely sold on him long-term which is good enough for me. My original reasoning for leaving him off the list was fear of him moving to third base and not having the bat to hold up. If he’s a SS, and he’s any good there, he’s probably a top-10 prospect in the draft. I was one of Gonzalez’ biggest fans earlier this spring, so it’s not the bat that scares me off per se, I just don’t know where I’m at with his defensive home personally.
CHANGE #10: Chase Dollander and Rhett Lowder deserve to be on here.
- I’m not sold on Gonzalez at SS, but it seems like the industry is completely sold on him long-term which is good enough for me. My original reasoning for leaving him off the list was fear of him moving to third base and not having the bat to hold up. If he’s a SS, and he’s any good there, he’s probably a top-10 prospect in the draft. I was one of Gonzalez’ biggest fans earlier this spring, so it’s not the bat that scares me off per se, I just don’t know where I’m at with his defensive home personally.
- Chase Dollander, RHP
- I was probably way too harsh on both Dollander and Lowder. Dollander’s fastball is legitimately very good, I just have a really hard time seeing it all come together. It will eventually, which is why he’s in my top-20, I just think you’d be better off with a plethora of options in this particular draft.
- Rhett Lowder, RHP
- I was a little silly for leaving Lowder completely off of my board for a while, but I really do believe whoever drafts him will be underwhelmed by what they are getting. Wake Forest’s pitching lab is no joke, better than some professional teams have, and I worry that the wrong system could actually reverse some of his development. I also wonder if he isn’t already maxed out in terms of ability and my big concern is that he doesn’t have another gear to get to. He’s still got great pitchability, so there’s a good floor here, I just don’t think the ceiling is higher than a #4.
- Brandon Sproat, RHP
- I absolutely love this kid. Huge stuff. Probably no chance he’s the 8th pick or available at 44. Needs to iron out his command but so did David Sandlin. If Cleveland gets this kid he is the next Gavin Williams. Mark my words.
CHANGE #6 & 7: Adding two players I have always liked to the list, just needed some confirmation on both of them (Schanuel, White).
- I absolutely love this kid. Huge stuff. Probably no chance he’s the 8th pick or available at 44. Needs to iron out his command but so did David Sandlin. If Cleveland gets this kid he is the next Gavin Williams. Mark my words.
- Nolan Schanuel, 1B
- One of the best pure bats in the draft class. Risky profile as a college first baseman, but the bat is legit. Probably not close to consideration at #8 but I wanted him on my list.
CHANGE #11: Hello Kemp Alderman.
- One of the best pure bats in the draft class. Risky profile as a college first baseman, but the bat is legit. Probably not close to consideration at #8 but I wanted him on my list.
- Kemp Alderman, OF
- I think Kemp Alderman may be the most underrated college bat in this class and if the Royals could get him for like…$4.25M or so at #8, I really wouldn’t hate it. Now, Alderman is exclusively a corner outfielder and won’t provide a ton of defensive value, so he has to hit a TON, but I think the chances of him being Andrew Vaughn ish are good. I have his bat a half grade behind Schanuel, which is why he’s right behind him here, but the defensive adjustment may make him a better prospect long-term so they are pretty interchangeable. Kinda curious if the Royals could find enough money to float Alderman to #44, but I doubt it.
- Thomas White, LHP
- I want to be clear that White does *not* have the same caliber stuff as Noble Meyer, but if you have to have a prep pitcher in the first round, you are historically much better off taking a lefty than a righty. If the Royals could find a way to save some money at #8, this would be a freaking home run at #44.
- Dillon Head, CF
- I love Head. He’s an incredibly gifted athlete with a really simple swing that reminds me a little of Termarr Johnson, though not nearly on that level. He’d be kind of like drafting Enrique Bradfield Jr. Lite if you can get him at #44. There have been some rumors about the Royals interest in getting Head for a while now, and if the goal is to load up on prep bats in some capacity he would be a great add to the system. Maybe Diego Hernandez is a better comp. The problem is going to be that other teams also really like Head and I’m not sure the Royals are going to be able to put together enough money at #44 to pay for Head that late on Sunday night. In all seriousness, the Royals interest in Dillon seems to be legit and I’d love the pick later on in the draft, just not at #8.
That’s it for me on the rankings. I’ve seen enough of the consensus top-25 or so on public boards to get this far, but I just haven’t paid a ton of attention to the rest of it. Here’s a quick Twitter thread of arms I really like for KC with picks #44 and beyond:
My official “wish list” of sorts is basically just my top-15 in order. I’d probably prefer one of the hitters over Waldrep or Meyer, but that’s not much of a gripe. There’s a few bats I really like for picks #44 or later as well:
Jonny Farmelo, CF
Big time athlete, 60-grade runner, chance to stick in CF, big power. He’s a top-25 guy for me but there’s a chance he’s there at 44.
Brandon Winokur, OF
Heard great things about Winokur and then he posted the second best exit velocities of every prep hitter at the MLB Draft Combine recently. Big time hitter, probably a corner outfielder, but he can really run and would add some phenomenal upside in the later rounds.
Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech
Hurley absolutely clobbers baseballs but it comes with some strikeouts as well. He had an OPS of 1.128 this spring at VaTech on the back of an ISO that was damn near .400. Seriously. The Royals have obviously seen a lot of him given that they selected Cross last spring, so we’ll see.
Colton Ledbetter, OF, Mississippi State
Posted an OPS over 1.000 in the SEC this spring with 12 HR and 25 total XBH. His 47:36 BB:K ratio is wildly impressive and if Ledbetter had hit for more power I think we’d be way beyond him potentially being available at #44. As it is, I think there’s a decent chance he’s there with the Royals second pick and I’d be all over him if that’s the case. I’m not exactly sure what I think Ledbetter is in pro ball but I love the profile and the Royals need hitters like this in the system to develop and kind of “wait and see” what happens.
Here’s a thread of some draft-eligible sophomores to keep your eye on:
Here’s a thread of names I’m hearing KC has some interest in later in the draft:
That’s most of what I’ve got for you for this year. By this time next year I’ll be done with school so I really hope to get something closer to a draft guide up in 2024. For now, enjoy this cheat sheet and we’ll see how the draft goes. I’ll be available that night to cover the draft so I’ll have info on any curveballs to you ASAP. I really appreciate everyone who has followed along for the last five drafts. We’ll be back at it next year.
Royals Farm Report 
Any players in CWS come up on KC’s radar like Sandlin did last year?
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